Early Holiday Sales in October: Which Categories Rarely Get Cheaper Later

Here is the cost of waiting that never shows up on a price tag. You see a good price in early October and decide to hold off because Black Friday is coming. By late November, the item is sold out, the sizes you needed are gone, or the price is exactly what it was in October. You waited and gained nothing, and you also lost weeks of using it.

That does not mean October sales are better than later ones. In some categories, waiting really does pay. The honest answer is that it depends on the kind of purchase. No one can guarantee what a price will do next month, and neither can I. What follows are general patterns, not promises, with the reasoning behind them so you can judge for yourself.

For a product-by-product list, see our separate guide to what is worth buying in October and what can wait. This piece is about the patterns underneath, so you can sort any purchase.

What is happening in October

Early holiday sales now start well before Thanksgiving. Amazon held its Prime Big Deal Days on October 6 and 7 this year and said it had over one million items at its lowest price of the year so far. Notice those last two words. "So far" is not a promise that the price will not go lower later, and it is not a promise that it will.

In an article last October, Consumer Reports' deals editor said that October deals are overall not quite as good as the ones around Prime Day in July. But she also said that Black Friday is still ahead, and that any time before the last two weeks of December is a good time to start shopping. In other words, October is neither the best moment nor a bad one. It is one of several.

Group 1: Purchases that are less likely to get much cheaper later

These are the categories where waiting carries a real cost and a big price drop is less likely. Treat each as a tendency, not a rule.

Hot gifts that sell out. Consumer Reports suggests taking advantage of fall sales for popular items that might sell out. If you have your heart set on a specific toy, game or gadget that every kid wants, the risk is not a higher price. It is an empty shelf. For these, set a price you will happily pay and buy when you see it, rather than hoping for a later discount that may arrive after the stock is gone.

Things you need before the holiday sales begin. If a furnace filter, a winter coat for a growing child or a replacement for something that just broke is on your list, the use you get from owning it now can outweigh a possible later discount. A price drop of a few dollars is not worth weeks without a working heater or a warm jacket.

Everyday items that are rarely the star of a holiday sale. In Adobe's published results, the categories with the biggest holiday discounts were electronics, toys, apparel, TVs, computers, sporting goods, appliances and furniture. Groceries, personal care items and basic household supplies were not in that group. I could not find a public study that compares their October and December prices, so I cannot say what happens. The reasonable inference is that if a category is not where retailers advertise big events, a later sale is less likely to beat a good price you can get today.

Seasonal items at the end of their season. When stores are clearing space, the best prices may already be here, and the remaining stock can thin out quickly. We cover outdoor and garden gear in a separate piece, so I will not repeat it here.

Group 2: Purchases that usually get cheaper later

These are the ones where holiday events are the headline, and where patience has paid off in the past.

Televisions. Consumer Reports says TVs tend to have their best discounts around Black Friday and that it has seen that year after year. If you can wait, this is the clearest example.

Big-ticket electronics, computers and appliances. Adobe's forecast last October expected the deepest discounts for electronics and computers on Cyber Monday and for appliances on Black Friday. That is a forecast for a different year, not a guarantee for this one, but it points the same way as Consumer Reports' advice on TVs.

Sporting goods, furniture and apparel. Adobe's results show healthy holiday discounts in these categories too. A good price today may still be beaten, though how much and when varies by retailer and item.

Group 3: It depends

Clothing as a gift. Consumer Reports notes that buying early can use up return windows. If you are not sure about a size or style, waiting until the November sales can leave more time to return it, even if the price is similar.

Anything with a warranty. Consumer Reports also points out that shopping early eats up warranty time before the recipient even opens the box. For a gift with a one-year warranty, several months can slip away before it is used.

Anything marked with a big "percent off" label. Consumer Reports' market analyst has warned that some products that are discounted much of the year can return to the standard price before a sale, which can make a smaller discount look like a bigger one. A "sale" is only a deal if the price is actually good for that item.

A three-question test

Question 1: Do I need this before Thanksgiving? If yes, buy it now and stop worrying about a later sale. The value of having it can outweigh a possible saving.

Question 2: Is this the kind of item that gets headline discounts later? TVs, computers and appliances often do, so waiting is more reasonable. A hard-to-find toy does not, so waiting is riskier.

Question 3: What happens if I wait and the price does not move? If the answer is "nothing much," waiting is low-risk. If the answer is "I miss the item or a deadline," buy now.

Try it on a sample list

Here is how the test might sort a made-up family list. The TV the family has wanted for a year: not urgent, and TVs are the classic wait item, so wait. The one toy a child has asked for all fall: it may sell out, so buy at a price you are comfortable with. A furnace filter: needed now, so buy. A laptop for a teenager: if the old one still works, waiting is reasonable, and if it is dying before exams, buy. A winter coat: depends on whether this year's cold has arrived and on the return window. This is an illustration, not advice about any particular product.

Two small safeguards

Before you buy early, check the store's return policy and its deadline, since you will probably want to use that window. And do not spend money you need for next month's bills on a deal this month. A discount that causes a late payment or credit card interest is not a discount.

The bottom line: October is not the cheapest time to buy everything, and it is not the worst. It is a good time to buy what you need and what might sell out, and to wait on the categories where the biggest sales usually arrive later.